Stephen Abram of Sirsi Dynix has some interesting thoughts about what 2008 holds in store for library technology. Predictions like these are always a risky enterprise, I think their true usefulness is in helping me know where to look, and what to think about as we move into the new year. I hope he revisits some of his predictions periodically throughout the year.
Some of the 30 predictions that caught my attention are:
Gaming, RSS and Blogs are totally normal in 2008. Not to be using them is to be well behind the curve of your average user. Few users will be able to point to them since they’re just normal. It would be like asking users to point to HTML, CSS or SMTP. They’re like the freon in your fridge.
The Google Docs suite will make real inroads into the enterprise space. It will be very hot in high school and college/academic spaces too. Like all popular useful tools many institutional IT managers will attempt to block them.
The DRM wars are just beginning. Open Access rules for government information will expand. The RIAA will suffer loss of financial strength (especially after strongman Valenti’s passing) as members rebel over the high cost of RIAA dues and lawsuits against tweens and their own shrinking margins. Suing customers is rarely a good strategy.
Virtual Worlds will continue to show great promise but are not ready for prime time yet for a number of reasons. Still, you can’t have that future without an investment now. That investment is now more volunteer labour and creativity than dollars – unless you’re SL.
2008 will be the beginning of the end for DVD (Blu Ray is a distraction) as streaming media is adopted by Hollywood and the (dying) major networks on a much larger scale – dwarfing YouTube as it exists today. New licensing models will emerge for libraries in ‘08.
